Wall Street has begun revisiting its JAK Inhibitor estimates after the FDA issued safety warnings and used restrictions for AbbVie’s Rinvoq, Eli Lilly’s Olumiant, and Pfizer’s Xeljanz last week. SVB Leerink analysts believe the FDA’s prophecy might have various consequences on the medications’ potential across inflammatory conditions, based on interviews with three industry experts. In the short term, JAKs could face significant use decreases in rheumatoid arthritis, and they’re vulnerable to new competition in atopic dermatitis, according to SVB Leerink analysts.
Inflammatory bowel disease, on the other hand, continues to be a big market for JAK Inhibitor, according to the study. At the same time, lesser indications like psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis remain steady. Rheumatoid arthritis is already an approved usage for Xeljanz, Olumiant, and Rinvoq, and it is one of the most common indications for JAK Inhibitor. However, after a post-marketing study found heart-related side effects and cancer risks in Xeljanz, SVB Leerink, a rheumatology industry leader, stopped prescribing the Pfizer drug to new arthritis patients, despite having “considerable experience” with JAKs and liking their strong efficacy and oral dosing.
Nonetheless, the rheumatologist believes that JAKs will regain market share in three years as doctors become accustomed to the labels and if no new safety signs emerge. Given the existing clinical data and marketing initiatives, expect recommends Rinvoq above the other two medications. Rheumatoid arthritis accounts for half of AbbVie’s $8 billion Rinvoq revenue forecast for 2025.